NBA Player Props are back in a big way! First and foremost, Happy New Year! It’s 2021! This is my daily article breaking down the 3 best player props to bet each and every night of the NBA season. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for record recaps and live updates.
Note: I am using the lines set by FanDuel Sportsbook. Also, these are just my thoughts and opinions. I am not responsible for any loss of money, or broken items in rage.
Season Recap: 26-13
Just missed the 3-0 sweep by one point, but we don’t worry about that. We keep moving on with the NBA season. NBA Player Props have been an easy way to make some money. We have been hot taking advantage of the lines that Vegas is setting for us.
Let’s see if we can stay hot.
Damian Lillard Over 27.5 points (-116) vs. Bulls
Damian Lillard’s points in his last 5 games: 32, 34, 20, 31, 32. So, he would’ve hit his over with ease in 4 of 5, and up next he gets a date with the Bulls. The Bulls backcourt does not play a lick of defense. They just gave up 31 points to Jalen Brunson, and no disrespect to Brunson, but he is not the scorer or player that Dame is. Dame will feast tonight and get 30+ points with ease. Give me Dame Time’s over and lock it in!
Nikola Jokic Under 23.5 points (-110) vs. Timberwolves
I liked this line better when it was at 24.5 last night, but 23.5 will do and here’s why: Nikola Jokic is a pass first center. He wants to get his teammates involved before he has to score. In addition, he’s not a 24 ppg scorer every night. That’s just not what he does. He has not broken 20 points in 3 of his last 4 games. But looking at it from even further, last year, Jokic scored 24+ points in just 22 of the 73 regular season games (30.1%) and just 1 of 4 games against the Timberwolves. Most of my picks are based on law of averages, and if I had this bet every night of the season, I would take it 9 times out of 10 because it’s too high for what Jokic ‘usually’ does. Also, I don’t expect this game against Minnesota to be particularly close so that could play into our favor. Sorry Jokic, taking your under tonight.
Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-110) vs. Nets
Spida! Now, this line means Vegas has some sort of insider info. Donovan Mitchell’s most points scored in a game this year is 23, so this bet would be 6-0 which is why I am concerned it is set so high. Mitchell could easily make me regret this as he has the ability to drop 25 in a half with ease. But Spida is going to have to prove it to me. The Nets will be without Kevin Durant so this game could get ugly quick. Steve Nash is a new coach but he’s not stupid. He knows this offense runs through Mitchell so I expect him to try to get the ball out of his hands and make people like Mike Conley beat him. If you avoid this bet, I can’t necessarily blame you. As a sense of reassurance, Mitchell hit this over in 27 of 69 games last year which is less than 40%. Good odds, I am in. It’s a risk I am willing to take.
Those are my 3 favorite NBA player props to bet on January 5th. Here’s to hoping we bank together!
Also, check out our NBA Award Predictions made at the beginning of the year.