NBA Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Wednesday, 3/17/2021
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NBA Best Bets Season Record: 211-168-1 (+34.1 units)
We have 3-4 months of basketball ahead of us. Let’s make some money! Plus our Parlay of the Day which is 4-2 on the year. Let’s make that 5-2! 11-1-1 in the last 2 days.
Russell Westbrook Over 19.5 Rebs+Asts (-125)
Russell Westbrook is playing big time minutes, and as you will see in a second, this over/under line is absurd. Vegas is expecting a shootout and that’s exactly what they will get. Westbrook has cashed this line in 2 straight and 4 of his last 6. Averaging 38.5 MPG the last 2, the Wizards are in win now mode and this game against the Kings is an absolute must win. Westbrook will get it done and cash the over.
Nikola Jokic Over 46.5 PRAs (-110)
Jokic has been a monster this year, and he’s only been better in March. Averaging over 30 PPG this month, I like his over, but I will be more conservative and take the PRA line. Either way, Jokic has been cashing this easily recently. He has hit this in 2 of 3, 4 of his past 6, and we haven’t even talked about the matchup. The Hornets have no interior defense with Cody Zeller and a hacking Bismack Biyombo. The Hornets just gave up 17, 15 and 6 to Richaun Holmes. This is also the team that gave up 11, 12 and 19 assists to Draymond Green. While I am not comparing Draymond to Jokic, they both do tend to run their offenses and are excellent playmakers. Look for Jokic to exploit his matchup tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 18.5 Rebs+Asts (-128)
Giannis last year: 21, 26 and 25 last year against Philadelphia. My guess is they won’t let him run straight for the rim, and instead he will have to knock down jump shots, which bodes well for his assist number. He has had 3 straight triple doubles including a game in which he played just 29 minutes. Giannis has had 20+ RA’s (obviously) in 3 straight games. Like I spoke about above, his rebounding numbers were insane last year against Philly, averaging 17 rebounds per game in their 3 matchups. That probably is due to the fact that they put him in Simmons who doesn’t have a jump shot so Giannis just lurks around in the paint. Let’s go Greek Freak!
Kings/Wizards over 245.5 Points
Vegas wouldn’t set a line this high if they weren’t afraid of a slug fest. No defense will be played tonight, as you saw from our props selection. When overs are set above 240, they are 12-3 on the year (something like that). This over is well into the 240s which is why we will hammer it. The last time these two teams matched up was over a year ago but they combined for 259 points then, and now the Wizards have Russell Westbrook, an over bettors friend.
Hornets/Nuggets Over 230.5
We are back to the well on the Charlotte Hornets overs and it’s because they find themselves on the road tonight. Hornets’ Overs are 14-4 on the year on the road. I’m willing to play the numbers and take the over in what should be a closely contested game. The combination of Jokic, Murray and MPJ should be able to put up plenty of points on the Hornets.
Heat/Grizzlies Under 221
While I do lean the Heat-2 as they are one of the hottest teams in the NBA, I will choose the under as my official play. Both of these teams play tough gritty defense. The total has gone under in 4 of Memphis’ last 5 games at home. The total has gone under in the last 5 Miami road games. Both teams struggle to make 3 pointers (25th 3 pt FG% for the Heat, 21st for the Grizzlies). It will take great shooting efforts from both teams to hit this over, so I will take the under. The addition of Bam Adebayo back should help rim protect forcing Ja Morant and company to knock down some jump shots.
Parlay of the Day:
Record: 4-2 (+9.85 units)
Bucks, Celtics, Nuggets ML, Wizards/Kings Over 245.5 Pts +352
Longshot Parlay of the Day:
Record: 0-4 (-1 unit)
Harden, Westbrook and Jokic Triple Double: +1952
Those are my NBA Best Prop Bets and spreads for Wednesday, March 17th. Here’s to hoping we bank together.
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And, check out how my favorite DFS lineup below as well as some value plays! We will be back tomorrow for more NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads for Wednesday, March 17th.