NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Wednesday, 4/7/2021
This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates.
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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 284-239-1 (+36.5 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 16-14 (+1.8 units)
Here is today’s slate!
RJ Barrett Over 5.5 Rebounds (+112)
Take a look at this play. RJ has had 6+ rebounds in 27 of his 51 games this year, so just above 50% but the reason we are here is because of his previous games against the Celtics. During his rookie season, Barrett played the Celtics 3 times and each time he had 7 rebounds on the dot. They have played once this season, and he upped that number to 11 rebounds. The Celtics have also allowed the most shooting guard rebounds over the last 2 weeks. You can count on Barrett to play big minutes, and this is plus value. Sign me up.
Kyrie Irving Over 27.5 Points
Dating back to 2016, Kyrie Irving has played the Pelicans 5 times and he has averaged 34 points per game. He’s had 25+ points in 26 of his 36 games this year so he’s shown the ability to get close to this number, and now you give him a plus matchup against the Pelicans. Over their last 15 games, the Pelicans are giving up 27.63 points per game to opposing point guards. Durant might be back today, but Harden is out. Kyrie should be able to get it done.
Zion Williamson Over in Points
This is assuming that Brandon Ingram doesn’t play, and if he doesn’t, I will put the house on this over. For starters, you’re playing against the Brooklyn Nets who don’t play an ounce of defense. But the main reason I am here is because when Ingram does not play, Zion goes to work. In 3 career games without Ingram, Zion has 31, 32 and 34 points (34 from last night). I like this over at 30.5 (hopefully it isn’t that high). Regardless, I am riding with Zion tonight all things considered. Lock it in if Ingram is confirmed out.
Terry Rozier Over 8.5 Rebounds+Assists (-128)
Scary Terry hurt us a couple days ago, not his fault though since the Hornets got blown out. Today, they get to play the Thunder. Over their past 15 games, the Thunder are allowing over 9.6 assists per game to opposing point guards (4th most in the league). Terry has been hitting this number with ease: 11, 9, 8, 11, 11, 16. With Gordon Hayward out, he will be relied on as a playmaker and will play even more minutes than he does. Also, the Thunder have been letting opposing guards get this number easily. Saben Lee: 10 combined in just 16 minutes (Killian Hayes 10 combined off the bench). Lillard had 9 in 25 minutes. Chris Paul: 17 in 21 minutes. VanVleet 11 combined. Luka doesn’t count, but Brunson hit 9 off the bench in 19 minutes. Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard with 10 and 9 (off the bench). Need I say more? That is just the last 6 games. I am taking this prop for Terry Rozier.
Karl Anthony-Towns Over 27.5 Points
We just saw Vucevic go to work in the second half against this Pacers Team without Myles Turner. I won’t allow the Pacers to trot Goga Bitadze out there to guard KAT and not pick his over. This will be straight abuse tonight. KAT had 30 points in their last matchup and that was only on 19 shots, he should see more tonight (especially with no Malik Beasley and D-Lo Is a GTD). We ride with KAT tonight. If you have FanDuel, I prefer the 25 and 12 SGP over this play straight up, I feel like he should get that with ease. KAT has had 27+ points in 6 of his last 8 games against Indiana as well.
Leans (not sure if I will play):
Josh Richardson Over 6.5 Rebs+Asts
He has hit this line in 9 of his last 10 games. He usually lands on 7 or 8 exactly so he cuts it close. Rockets have given up the most assists to opposing shooting guards over their past 15 games. Only negative is that he only combined for 1 the last time these two teams played.
Chuma Okeke Over in Points
The Chum Bucket has 14+ points in 6 of his last 7 games. Someone has to score for the Magic. Matchup against the Wizards is a nice one. We take the over with pride if it is 10.5-12.5. No doubt about it.
Pacers/Timberwolves Over 227.5 Points
In 3 of their last 4 matchups, they have combined for over 230 points. Earlier in the season, that was 262, but that included 20 points in overtime so 242 in regulation (which also included a 36 point 3rd quarter which normally results in an under. Not that night. I like the over tonight in a game the Pacers are out a lot of their stars (Sabonis, Brogdon and Turner all projected out). They should play faster and try to score in transition against this Timberwolves defense.
Grizzlies/Hawks Over 228 Points
Both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points recently. They matched up early in the season and combined for 234 points. Hawks have scored over 117 points in 4 straight games. Grizzlies have scored over 116 points in 3 straight, two of those matchups against great defensive teams (124 against the Heat last night, and 116 against the Sixers). We take the over tonight for 2 teams that play super fast.
Parlay of the Day:
Kyrie Irving Over 27.5 Points, Grizzlies/Hawks Over 228, Terry Rozier Over 8.5 Rebs+Asts=+528
Long Shot Parlay of the Day:
Add in KAT Over 27.5 Points and RJ Barrett over 5.5 rebounds and you got +2441. Sign me up.
MLB Props, Runlines, Over/Unders, NRFIs:
Twins ML vs. Tigers
The beginning of our bad luck day yesterday was the Twins losing in extra innings. I watched a Tigers team play a near perfect game of baseball and a few hitters such as Niko Goodrum going 3-5 ain’t gonna happen again. Kenta Maeda is set to go for the Twins, and I love the matchup. Outside of Nelson Cruz, none of the Twins hitters showed up yesterday. That changes today.
Blue Jays-1.5 vs. Rangers
-120 odds on this one, and this is one of my favorite plays of the day. Hyun Jin Ryu in his one start, held the Yankees batters in check, and their lineup has significantly more fire power than this Rangers team. I think Ryu is being slept on this year, and he’ll take care of the Rangers.
Royals-Indians Under in Runs
The final score yesterday was 3-0 and we get Shane Bieber on the mound for Cleveland. 12 Ks in his first start of the season- awfully impressive. Similarly to the formula we took in the Yankees game yesterday, we bet the under when an ace is on the mound and pray we don’t get some garbage runs like yesterday.
Trevor Bauer Over K’s
Disclaimer: We do not have a line for this, but I would take it up to 6.5. That’s the highest I would go. 7.5 or 8.5 is a little too high for me. It was 5.5 last week.
I’m going back to the well for this one. Dodgers are a juggernaut against an inferior A’s team. Going as far back as 2019 (in 2 games played against the As) he struck out 15 total batters. I get it, two seasons ago, but Bauer already struck out 10 in his first start this year. Hammer the over.
White Sox/Mariners No Run First Inning (NRFI)
Mariners have not allowed a first inning run all year. we have been cold on NRFI’s so the people of the Discord chose this pick for us. We have faith. Let’s ride.
Parlay of the Day:
Twins ML, Blue Jays-1.5, Indians/Royals Under: +400