NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Tuesday, 4/27/2021
This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates.
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel! Over 4000 subscribers!
Also, join our Sports Betting Discord with over 1480 members and counting. Text Channels for all sports to chat with others about and see what people are betting. Link is right here: https://discord.gg/C9gMv4mFKz
Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 360-296-1 (+47.4 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 79-66-1 (+5.0 units)
Here is today’s slate!
Malcolm Brogdon Over 36.5 PRAs. Now 37.5. Like it up to 38.5.
I’ve been staring at this play for a couple games now and Brogdon has been cashing this without Sabonis or Turner active. Last 3 games: 41 PRAs (vs. Orlando), 38 PRAs (vs. Detroit) and 51 PRAs (vs. OKC). Tonight, as good of a matchup as it gets against Portland. On the season, Blazers give up the 3rd most PPG, most RPG and 5th most APG to opposing point guards. We cashed Morant against them twice, wouldn’t be surprised to see Brogdon cash again given his success recently. Also, the one game earlier this season that these teams played with Sabonis and Turner active, Brogdon 25 5 and 7 for 37 PRAs. Locking it in.
Draymond Over 18.5 Rebs+Assists (or 9.5 Assists) (now at 16.5 which doesn’t make much sense)
Draymond has turned it on the past two games with 2 straight double doubles, no points. He had 14 rebounds, 13 assists against the Kings last game, and then 12 rebounds, 19 assists against the Nuggets. So, if my math is correct, I think he beat this 18.5 line. He didn’t just beat it, he destroyed it. In both games this year against the Mavericks, he had 6 rebs and 15 assists easily cashing this player prop. Draymond knows it’s winning time. All of these games are must win’s especially tonight against the Mavericks. Expect another huge Draymond outing.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds
Giannis is back to his rebounding ways with 14+ in 3 straight games and tonight, he gets a matchup against the Hornets who he has notoriously feasted on. In Giannis’ only game against Charlotte on January 30th, 18 rebounds. What about before then? 20, 16, 9, 13, 14, 14, 18. 7 of his last 8 games. That one miss of 9 rebounds, he played a big 20 minutes in that game. That was a game where the Bucks won by 40 and that does have potential today, but I like the edge and I like his production recently. Let’s get Greek Freaky tonight…pause.
I say Leans because I don’t know what the prop is but I want you guys to do the research. I will predict a line and what I take it up to and what I feel comfortable betting, but I could be way off so if it’s above the number I say, then I won’t be taking it.
Kevin Porter Jr. Over 6.5 or 7.5 Assists
Kevin Porter Jr returns tonight. For those that don’t know, John Wall is out for the season, and that means the ball should be in KPJ’s hands early and often. In 11 career games with the Houston Rockets without John Wall, he has had 7+ assists in 9 of those 11. Increasing it to 8+ and he has done so in 6 of 11. The Timberwolves have given up over 10 assists per game to opposing point guards over their last 30 games (2nd most in the league). I like KPJ tonight mostly at 6.5, but still playable at 7.5 if it’s + value (hopefully).
Christian Wood Over 22.5 Points
This is the highest line I would take him at. He has hit this in 3 straight games without John Wall. He hit this in their only game against the Timberwolves a month ago, and that included John Wall who attempted 25 shots that game, compared to Wood’s 16. If Wood can get up 18 shot attempts or more, we will be golden. In games he has shot 18+ times, he has hit over 22.5 points in 9 of those 11 games. On the season, the Timberwolves give up 25 PPG to opposing centers, the most in the league. Wood has the skills to hit this over tonight. Not my favorite play of the evening, but definitely one to look out for.
Pascal Siakam vs. Nets Over 21.5 Points maybe 22.5
Hardly any props in this Raptors-Nets game, but I like Siakam over both of those lines. In general, 25+ points in 3 straight and 6 of his last 8 games. In the 2 games against Brooklyn this year, Siakam has feasted with 27 and 33 points. I’ll take his over again tonight because I don’t think the Nets can stop him when he gets into the lane.
Jusuf Nurkic Over 25.5 Points+Rebounds (or 13.5 Points on Bet MGM)
Nurkic has been great the last 2 games against the Grizzlies when he exploited matchups. Tonight, he plays the Pacers who have let opposing centers feast on them without Sabonis and Turner. They have been starting Jakarr Sampson at Center and that won’t work well as Jakarr is 6’7”. Bitazde might be back, but even better. Nurkic is coming up 35 and 43 PR’s and I think he hits that easily tonight in a great, high scoring matchup with the Pacers.
Celtics/Thunder Under 219
After a bad day, you gotta go to your trusty steeds, and that would be the betting an under in a Thunder game. A big 90 points for the Thunder yesterday. Great job guys. The Celtics have been playing great defense this month, and they will be without Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, two of their primary scorers. I expect a slow, grind it out kind of game.
Blazers/Pacers Over 236.5
I’ve seen the Blazers play defense or lack thereof, same could be said for the Pacers. Both teams play incredibly fast. Last year these teams played and the final score was 139 to 129. That’s what they are capable of. You know I like Nurkic to have a field day against this Pacers interior defense. Blazers and specifically Damian Lillard have to be better on offense and I think they will do that today. Take the over.
Draymond Green Over 18.5 RA’s (or just assists), Nurkic Over 25.5 PR’s (or just points), and Giannis Over 11.5 Rebounds. +573
Brogdon is in my 4th favorite plays.
MLB Run Lines, Over/Unders, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
White Sox RL (-1.5) vs. Tigers
Braves Team Total Over 4.5 Runs vs. Cubs
Rockies/Giants Under 8 Runs
Twins/Indians Under 8.5 Runs
Giolito Over 8.5 K’s
Diamondbacks ML vs. Padres (+146)
Parlay of the Day:
Angels ML, Twins ML, Brewers ML +400