NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Thursday, 4/29/2021
This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates
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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 363-308-1 (+39.1 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 84-73-1 (+3.5 units)
Here is today’s slate!
We have to be better. Three straight losing nights, but I like today’s slate. Let’s get after it. Can’t be worse than yesterday….right?
Isaiah Stewart (Pistons) Over 11.5 Rebounds +106
Looking at plus value, and I would much prefer this at 10.5, and hopefully the line goes down to that or if you have 10.5, take it and run. Everyone and their mother is out tonight for the Mavericks and Pistons. That includes Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Wayne Ellington, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder and Dennis Smith Jr. I like the rebounds here at plus value and here’s why: Stewart has been great these past 3 weeks when Plumlee is out and he starts and gets 25+ minutes. His rebounding numbers over those last 4 games without Plumlee: 13, 16, 21 and 13. Tonight, against the Mavericks who have their own injury questions, he should still play his normal minutes regardless of a blowout. And I think he can feast on the glass once again. I am taking it. The Mavericks do give up over 15 RPG to opposing centers, and Stewart is about all the Pistons got.
Draymond Green Over 17.5 Rebounds+Assists (-120)
I know Draymond hurt us good a couple nights ago, wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to fade, but he still got close despite not playing in the 4th quarter and only getting 3 assists, he still got up to 14. Tonight, he will do it all. He has to set the tone against this Timberwolves team. The Warriors need this win and I expect Draymond Green to lead by example. He had destroyed this RA line in his previous two games before that game against the Mavericks. I expect him to return back to that form tonight because he has to. The Warriors need it.
OG Anunoby Over 18.5 Points +100
OG has been superb recently, and I am thinking strictly about matchups tonight. The Nuggets will likely put Aaron Gordon on Pascal Siakam (as AG did that matchup during his time with Orlando) and thus that means Michael Porter Jr. will be on OG Anunoby and that’s BBQ chicken. OG has scored 20+ points in 5 straight games. This is a matchup he can exploit. His last 2 games against the Nuggets: 23 and 32 points respectively. Raptors should recognize this clear advantage and let OG go to work.
Darius Bazley Over 25.5 PRAs (or points at 16.5)
Bazley cashed for us a couple nights ago and we desperately need a winner. Zion Williamson will likely guard him and that’s 100% fine with me. Zion has a tendency to not try on the defensive side of the ball. Minus a game against Philadelphia a great defensive team (the Pelicans are not that), Darius Bazley would’ve hit this over in his last 7 games. He’s shooting the ball a lot more, and with Lu Dort back, he doesn’t have to do everything. Bazley has the tools to hit this over with just points as he had 26 in a couple games last week, but I think he pulls in enough rebounds and assists to get the job done. I don’t expect a huge blowout like that Sixers game. Pelicans could still cover but if this game is within 20 points, Bazley will play enough minutes to get this done in a high scoring game.
Warriors-5.5 vs. Timberwolves
The Warriors flat out couldn’t have played worse the last time they hit the court. Absolutely boat raced by the Mavericks and they managed I believe 28 points in the first half. They have to be better and they will. Also, it is worth noting that after a win, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-11-2 ATS covering at under 32% of the time. The Warriors have beaten them by double digits in each game this year, and I say they do it again tonight.
Mavericks Pistons Over 215 Points
Usually I would bet the under here because the Pistons stink and are missing 5-6 players in their usual rotation, so you’d say where are the points coming from, and I get that argument, but let’s talk about basketball as a whole. When you don’t have a lot of experience playing together, would you rather score in transition fast, or play a half court game? Exactly. Fast in transition. Also, I think the Mavericks will be able to score at will against this Pistons team, and they might help us get to this total. As always, I only do a half unit on O/U’s especially after what I have seen these past few games.
That will do it. 6 picks. Manage that bankroll. Fade if you want, I wouldn’t blame you. It’s been a rough stretch in player props recently but we will get this train back on track tonight. Good luck to everyone!
Parlay of the Day:
Darius Bazley Over 25.5 PRA’s, Draymond Green Over 17.5 RA’s, and Isaiah Stewart Over 11.5 Rebounds: +587
MLB Run Lines, Over/Unders, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
Red Sox ML (-122) vs. Rangers
A’s ML (-120) vs. Rays
White Sox RL vs. Tigers Game 1
Diamondbacks ML (-158) vs. Rockies
Bauer K’s Over
Phillies vs. Cardinals NRFI