NBA & MLB Best Bets: Thursday, 5/6/21

NBA & MLB

NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Thursday, 5/6/2021

 This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates

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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!

 

NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 382-333-1 (+32.4 units)

MLB Best Bets Record: 111-82-2 (+17.7 units)

Here is today’s slate!

 

Anthony Davis Over 22.5 Points (-122)

This might be the first time I have ever bet on Anthony Davis on this channel and that’s why he becomes the thumbnail for this video. The Brow has been banged up all year but he’s looking healthy (sort of) right now and the Lakers need this win against the Clippers. They should come out and play hard. The Clippers do not have a good matchup for Davis. They can try Marcus Morris or Kawhi Leonard, but those guys are too short. Put Zubac on him and I am going to have to file a police report. As for the analytics side, it backs up this play. Over his last 12 games against the Clippers, he has cashed this over in 11 of them. The one loss was on opening night when AD ended with 18 points on 15 shots and only 2 free throw attempts. Over his last 4 games, he has scored 22+ points in 3 of em, but only hit his over in 2 of the games with 2 25+ point outings. He should play 33ish minutes tonight and attempt 18-20 shots and Anthony Davis is good enough to hit 23 points on that many shot attempts. I will live with the result regardless, but I am taking the Brow tonight to give the Clippers the business. Lock it in.

 

Clint Capela Over 16.5 Points (-110)

I know, you’re like “why am I betting on Clint Capela to score points and I understand where you’re coming from but let me explain. For beginners. The Pacers are giving up 30.68, yes 3 0 PPG to opposing centers over their past 15 games. But the main reason I am here is to look at Capela’s track record vs. the Pacers in his career. Dating back to November 2017, Capela has played this Pacers team 6 times. He has averaged over 21 PPG over those 6 contests and has cashed the over in all 6 of those games. He has a great matchup and he exploits it, which he should do the same tonight. In their 2 matchups this season, he has had 24 and 25 points respectively. Trae Young should find him, but he also can just go abuse them on the offensive glass as last game against the Pacers he had 8 offensive rebounds and 24 rebounds total so I don’t hate his Points+Rebounds line but tonight, I am rocking with Mr. Capela to go crazy.

 

LaMelo Ball Over 31.5 PRAs (-113)

This number is high, but I am still in. The Hornets take on the Bulls tonight a middle of the pack defense. LaMelo should fill up the stat sheet just like he did two nights ago when he had 36 PRAs vs. the Pistons. Not only should this be a higher scoring game than that one, but he also gets some reinforcements in PJ Washington. Another player that he can get assists off of since Miles Bridges is out. It’s worth nothing that Devonte Graham is unlikely to play, but monitor that situation to be official, because if he does play, I do not like this play as much. The other Ball brother hurt us a couple nights ago, let’s see if this Ball Brother is nicer to us than that one. Locking in the over 31.5 PRAs for LaMelo.

 

Pascal Siakam Over 24.5 Points (-112)

I know, 25 points is asking for a lot out of Spicy P but this is why I am taking it and there’s a reason the sports books have made this line so high. For starters, OG Anunoby should be out tonight, he is doubtful and that translates to massive minutes for Siakam. Over his last 3 games (all of which OG has missed), he has averaged 40 minutes per game so you can’t complain about that. Now we look at the matchup. But look at his matchup. Rui Hachimura will be out and the Wizards should start Anthony Gill and Alex Len in the front court, and Bradley Beal will likely play the small forward position with Raul Neto starting as well. This lineup is going to be a liability defensively and the Raptors and Nick Nurse have to recognize the clear matchup and that is Siakam. Over his last 4 matchups against the Wizards, he is averaging 26 PPG, granted that might be inflated because of a 44 point outing, but he has still hit the over in 2 of 4 and one of those games he played just 25 minutes. He should get up at least 20 shots tonight, and if that is the case, it is worth noting that in 12 games this season with 20+ shots, he has hit the over in 8 of em. Not too shabby. 

 

Raptors/Wizards Over 233.5

Man, I don’t like betting spreads but I almost pulled the trigger on the Wizards to cover +1.5, but I will take the over instead and here’s why. Washington has played 16 games this season with no rest, that is back to back nights of games, and the over has cashed in 11 of those 16 games. Not only that, but if you look at their past game logs you will see a common theme: Points. Sure you can look at their game on April 5th and say ‘Austin, they combined for 204 points’. Yeah I know, Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry did not play, all of which will be active tonight. So taking that game out and looking at their previous 5 encounters, here are the total points: 252, 251, 240, 249, 278. Now you see what I am saying. These teams should go back and forth, and I did consider Westbrook’s props today but as of 6:30 AM, I do not have any props for him, so maybe I will add them onto the slate in the comments below.

 

MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:

Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot

 

Yankees 1st RL (-0.5) vs. Astros (-135)

Twins ML First 5 vs. Rangers

Braves/Nats Over 4.5 First 5 (-145)

Boston RL (-0.5) vs. Detriot

Smyly K’s Under 5.5

Astros/Yankees NRFI (-130)

 

Parlay: 

Boston F5 RL, Braves/Nats F5 O4.5, Astros/Yankees NRFI

 

Those are my NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for Thursday, May 6th.  Here’s to hoping we bank together. 

Also, follow us on Twitter @CallingOurShot.

And, check out our Sports Betting Arbitrage article and video. You don’t want to miss it.

Sports Betting Arbitrage: What is it? & How Can OddsJam help?

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