NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Tuesday, 5/11/2021
This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates
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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 397-347-1 (+30.8 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 125-91-2 (+23.5 units)
Here is today’s slate!
Isaiah Stewart Under 9.5 Rebounds (-105)
Yesterday, I learned that his nickname was Beef Stew, so that’s cool I guess. But let’s talk analytics. Ever since we picked Stewart’s over in rebounds, he has struggled. So I am sure he hits this over today because it be like that, but here’s why I am on the under.
Stewart has gone under in 6 straight games averaging just 6.2 rebounds over those contests. Minnesota gives up the 10th fewest rebounds to opposing centers and that is due to the fact that KAT sits out on the perimeter firing up 3’s. Over their last 15 games, only 2 starting centers against the Timberwolves have put up 10 rebounds. I like those percentages and I like the odds, so I am riding with it. I don’t bet many unders on this channel but this one is for you, Brian, who is always begging me to bet some unders.
Kemba Walker Over 19.5 Points
If you had Kemba’s over on Sunday, I am sorry. The man sat out the first half but he still got very close to hitting this over. I think today, he shoots more. On Sunday, he scored 18 points on just 12 shots, his fewest shots since April 15th. With Jaylen Brown announced out for the year, Kemba is going to have to step up even more. If you look at his game log over his past 6 games, we have seen 18, 33, 32, 20, 32 and 26 points. Asking for 20 points from someone of Kemba’s skill level isn’t too much. He should get near that in shots today and cash the over as the Heat struggle to guard opposing centers.
Also, side note: the Celtics are going to need him to score to be in this game. Evan Fournier is not dropping 30 points like he did last game. Nope. Not happening.
Nikola Jokic Under 46.5 PRAs (-115)
This is a sketchy one and that’s the under for the future MVP and here’s why. 47 PRAs is a lot even for a guy like Jokic. Over his last 11 games, he has only hit this line in 3 of them, and he always seems to play poorly against the Hornets. Let’s dive into the numbers some more.
For starters, we have a low over/under at just 217, but if you look at thee last 7 times he has played the Hornets, here is his stat line:
12 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists (this year)
14 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists
12, 8 and 8. 39 12 and 6. 16 11 and 6. 15 16 and 7. 18 12 and 0. You see that one game he scored 39 points so you can’t do anything about that, but the rest of the games he has not even gotten close. I know it’s risky and Jokic could easily drop a 50 piece right on my dome and I would say “Yep I deserved that”, but I am riding with the under tonight. It’s worth noting that in all of those games, he did receive 29+ minutes.
Treat me nicely, Jokic.
Deandre Ayton Over 25.5 PRAs (-122)
Okay, if you’re this far into the video, you might think this is my cry for help. I have taken two player prop unders and now I am on an Ayton over? Things don’t make sense and I completely understand but here’s why.
Let’s talk about just this year against the Warriors. In 2 games, Ayton has had 11, 10 and 2 (only 23) and 12 13 and 4 (29), so he’s split it. But if you look at his minutes played, he only logged a big 22 and 23 minutes per game. That’s much lower than the 30.6 MPG that he averages.
Looking at his performance over his career against the Warriors, Ayton has feasted. 20 and 9, 18 9 and 4, 23 and 12, 25 and 10, 20 and 14. You see the numbers. In his 7 career games against Golden State, he has hit this in 6 of em. If it weren’t for a blowout, that would’ve been 7 for 7. I am ready to get hurt and if he goes under, I will be in the Discord upset, but I think he has a good chance today. Lock it in.
Dallas Mavericks/Memphis Grizzlies Under 226.5 Points
This game feels like a pillow fight. You got the Grizzlies and Mavericks both fighting for playoff positioning and both capable (sometimes) of playing defense, and I think that’s what we see today. The last time these two teams played, they barely cashed the over at 227. Previous two matchups, they combined for 194 and 217. The Grizzlies have been playing better defense and have not hit this # in 6 of their last 7 games. The Mavericks have not hit this number in 4 of 5 games. I just think we get a better defensive showing out of each of these teams.
I realize we have a lot of unders on the show today, so I am ready to get hurt good. Taking it.
Thunder Team Total Under 107.5 Points
This is what I assume the line is given that the O/U is 224 and they are 10.5 point underdogs. I don’t think the Thunder have the facilities to score 108 points and if they do, they are going to have to prove me wrong. This team stinks. They haven’t broken 100 points in 4 straight games.
This team is legit terrible. Like I said the other day, I have no interest in watching this game, I will just look at the box score at the end of the night but I am rocking with it. Thunder Team Total Under 107.5. Lock it in.
MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
Indians First 5 RL -0.5 (-134) vs. Cubs
Red Sox First 5 ML (-138) vs. A’s
White Sox ML (-118) vs. Twins
Blue Jays/Braves Over 9 Runs (-120)
Buehler U7.5 K’s (+115)
Indians F5 RL, Red Sox F5 ML, Orioles/Mets NRFI: +393
Those are my NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for Tuesday, May 11th. Here’s to hoping we bank together.
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And, check out our Sports Betting Arbitrage article and video. You don’t want to miss it.