NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Thursday, 5/13/2021
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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 404-352-1 (+31.8 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 132-95-3 (+27.2 units)
Here is today’s slate!
Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Rebounds+Assists (-118)
Sabonis has been on a tear in May averaging 15 rebounds and 11 assists in his 7 games of action. He has hit this over in 6 of the 7 games. Here is his totals recently: 28, 29, 26, 17, 21, 28, 33. He’s been killing it.
Now he gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks who have given up the most rebounds per game (18.53) and 6th most assists per game (5.11) to opposing centers over their last 7 games. Sabonis is playing big minutes and while I do expect the Bucks to win this game, Sabonis should still have a really good statistical day as he fills up the stat sheet.
Nikola Vucevic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-128)
Speaking of giving up a lot of rebounds to opposing centers, enter the Toronto Raptors. The Bucks have given up 18.5 rebounds per game to opposing centers the most in the league over their last 7 games. Enter the Toronto Raptors who are giving up 18.4 rebounds per game, the 2nd most in the league.
Vucevic has been on a tear personally, hitting this number in 6 straight games and 8 of his last 9. Now if we are talking about his performance strictly against the Raptors, he has hit this line in 2 of his last 3 matchups, and 7 of his last 10 against Toronto. He should once again pile up the boards vs. a depleted Toronto Raptors team.
Devin Booker Over 27.5 Points (-106)
With the Utah Jazz losing, this game becomes a must win for the Suns. If the Suns can manage to win out, and the Jazz lose one more game, they will end with the same record and the Suns would hold the tiebreaker after beating the Jazz in all 3 matchups. So, we turn to Devin Booker. Booker hurt us in the past week. He only attempted 12 shots and thus he did not hit his over.
But let’s look at the body of work: 30+ points in 7 of his last 10 games, so I am already liking it. Against the Blazers this year, he has had 34 and 35 points in their two matchups. We already know the Blazers are not a great defensive team, and this game will play a big role in the final seeding as the Suns don’t want to play the Lakers first round, and you can’t blame them.
I think Phoenix comes out trying to win this game and it’ll be through Devin Booker who should cruise to another 30 point outing against the Blazers porous defense.
As the famous poet named Drake once said: “Wet like I’m Book”. We ride with Devin tonight. Take his over
Michael Porter Jr. Over 24.5 Points (-116)
Over his last 3 games he has had: 30, 28 and 31 points. He’s put up over 17 shots per game in each of those contests and tonight, against the Timberwolves, he should see that number once again. The Timberwolves aren’t a team that loves playing defense, they just go for their statistics (KAT, DLO, AntMan). They are far more concerned about the box score than the outcome of the game and thus they should leave MPJ open for a good amount of 3’s.
Porter Jr. is going to fire it up from 3, that’s just what he does. I am taking his over tonight and if he decides to build a brick house out there, then so be it. That could be the case for any player in the league.
Giannis Over 16.5 Rebounds+Assists (-104)
We can make this one quick, but Giannis has been a beast against the Pacers for the last couple years and tonight will be no different. Looking at his game log recently, he has had 17, 7, 17, and 17 rebounds+assists over his last 4 games, so just cashing the over, but tonight, I don’t think he comes particularly close. Against the Pacers, he has dominated. You would have to go back to March 5th, 2018 to find the last time Giannis didn’t hit this over. That would be over 8 games. He has cashed this (obviously) in 8 straight. 24 combined earlier this season with a triple double in just 31 minutes, then 18, 28, 19, 17, 30, 17.
I think he has a good shot to hit this tonight against the Pacers so I am taking it with confidence. If you don’t have rebounds+assists, it’s up to you. He’s hit his assists line in 6 of 7 vs. the Pacers, but he’s also hit the over in rebounds in 6 straight games.
Bucks-8.5 vs. Pacers
I say it time and time again, but if you’re new to the channel then you have never heard it, but the Milwaukee Bucks are the Indiana Pacers kryptonite. And that’s with a full healthy Pacers team, not the one trotting out Sabonis, LeVert and a truck load of scrubs. Okay TJ McConnell and Doug McDermott are decent and they have some okay players, but you get the point.
Dating back to March 2019, these teams have matched up 7 times. The Bucks have won 6 of those 7 games. The one game the Pacers won (1) the Bucks were without Giannis and obviously Jrue Holiday as that was back in February 2020, (2) Indiana was completely healthy. They had Sabonis, Brogdon, Turner, Oladipo, TJ Warren (who dropped a 35 piece that game) and even Jeremy Lamb (their 6th man). News flash, all of those players will not be playing except for Sabonis and LeVert as I already mentioned.
Now, let’s talk about the other 6 matchups that the Bucks won, cause you would be taking the Pacers+8.5 so it just has to be close right? The Bucks have won all 6 of those contests by 19+ points. Yes, 19. They played back in March, 27 point Bucks win. February 2021, 20 point Bucks win. Previous game 19 point win, then 28, 19, 19. You get the point and why I say they are the kryptonite. I am not the best at spreads, never claimed to be, but I like this one and I will be taking it.
Timberwolves/Nuggets Over 235.5 Points
Similar to the Michael Porter Jr. analysis, the Timberwolves don’t play a whole lot of defense. Prior to playing the Pistons, Magic and Heat (all 3 weak defensive teams), they had been combining for a ridiculous number of points. Like 274 with the Grizzlies, 276 vs. the Pelicans, 240 with the Jazz. You get the point. The Timberwolves have been scoring a lot of points too, with 119+ points in 5 of their last 6, and they push the pace. The Nuggets on the other hand sport the 5th best offensive rating in the NBA. Led by Jokic and MPJ, I think this over cashes with ease. The last time these two teams played, they combined for 239 and 233 back when KAT wasn’t playing, AntMan was coming off the bench, and MPJ was out. All those 3 guys can fill it up, so I take the over tonight.
Parlay of the Day Time:
Nikola Vucevic Over 11.5 Rebounds
Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Rebounds+Assists
Michael Porter Jr. Over 24.5 Points
MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
A’s vs. Red Sox Under 4.5 F5 (+106)
Indians/Mariners Under 4.5 F5 (-135)
Giants/Pirates U7.5 (-104)
Astros Team Total over 4.5 (-125)
Rangers/Astros: Folty U4.5 K’s (-149)
Cardinals/Brewers NRFI (-165)
Brewers NRFI, Houston TT O4.5, Giants/Mariners U4.5 F5: +464
Those are my NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for Thursday, May 13th. Here’s to hoping we bank together.
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