NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Wednesday, 5/26/2021
This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates.
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Let’s get into my NBA Best Prop Bets and Spreads of the Day!
NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 442-400-1 (+28.7 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 174-131-3 (+29.8 units)
Here is today’s slate!
Ben Simmons Over 29.5 PRAs (-113)
You might be thinking to yourself, why aren’t we taking Ben Simmons RA line? Let’s go back to the well, and while I don’t hate that play, I think it will cash but the 16.5 was a little high for me. Let’s dive into this PRA line.
Sure, Simmons didn’t score well in the first game, granted he did cash this PRA line with just rebounds and assists as he had 15 of each, but he shot 3/9 from the field and 0/6 from the free throw line.
Say what you want about Ben Simmons, but he’s a 56% career field goal shooter and 61% from the line.
That Game 1 was an abnormality and today he will get back on track. But it’s not just that, let’s look at his PRA line against the Wizards this year as well as his career.
- 36 in Game 1.
- 35 in January
- 32 in December
- 18 (in the Bubble where he didn’t play many minutes)
- Rest of his career: 33, 32, 33, 31, 31, 32, 29, 53, 33.
So, Vegas got this line pretty close, but I think we have a good edge here. He’s hit this over in 11 of his 13 matchups, missing by the hook once and then in a game he didn’t play many minutes.
I think this line personally should be 32.5, but I will happily take the 29.5 and ride with it. Let’s go Ben. Show this porous Wizards defense what’s good.
Let’s move onto Hawks vs. Knicks
In Game 1, we started with Julius Randle and boy did he stink it up, now I do expect him to bounce back today, he’s going to have to prove it to me before I take his over.
RJ Barrett Over 5.5 Rebounds (-118)
One of my favorite players on the Knicks and he has been great this season. Really showing that potential that the Knicks saw in him when they drafted him with the 3rd overall pick 2 years ago. The Maple Mamba is coming into his own.
You look at Game 1, RJ Barrett not only cashed this player prop, but he doubled it. Instead of 5.5 rebounds, he had 11. Now, sure that might’ve been a little lucky, and if he did that again, that would likely be +750 value or better, but he’s shown that this wasn’t a fluke.
In all 4 games against Atlanta this year, he has cashed this prop. He has had 11, 6, 6 and 11 rebounds in those games. RJ also only played 32 minutes in Game 1 and that will likely increase. He did not play much in that 2nd quarter thanks to the bench playing much better and Thibodeau riding the hot hand.
He averaged 5.8 RPG this season, and he hit this over in 50% of his games this season right on the dot. I like the matchup and I like his consistency. I’m willing to take my chances on a player like RJ who attacks the glass and plays big minutes, to fall into at least 6 rebounds.
Let’s get it done Maple Mamba.
Last game, Jazz vs. Grizzlies
Bojan Bogdanovic Under 26.5 PRAs (-125)
I like this or his points under, but Spida is back. Yes, Donovan Mitchell is returning and with that means that Mr. Bogdanovic no longer gets shots.
Okay fine, Mitchell isn’t that big of a ball hog but if you look at the splits this season, you can see why I am taking this.
In 19 games this season without Donovan Mitchell, Bojan has averaged 22.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game on 15.6 shot attempts per game. Very good numbers.
Now insert Donovan Mitchell:
53 games together, 15.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 1.8 APG on 11.8 shot attempts combining for just 21 PRAs as opposed to 28 PRAs without him.
Sure, you could look at Game 1 of this series and say, “Well, Bogdanovic had 29 points and 34 PRAs” Yes, I get that, but I challenge you to go see how many points he had at halftime. If I am not mistaken, he had a goose egg at half. It took a monster second half and a remarkable performance to hit this over.
Could he do it today, yes, of course he could, but I am banking on an angry Donovan Mitchell to control the ball today, and then you always have Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson chucking it up, plus some Joe Ingles and others stealing shots often leaving Bojan as the odd man out.
Icing on top: these teams played twice with Donovan Mitchell active (who scored 35 in both games):
Bojan had 21 PRAs in one game in 32 minutes, and 8 (yes…8) PRAs in the other game in 27 minutes.
If he wants to hit the over, go for it but I am siding with the analytics and rolling with it.
Jazz Team Total 1st Half Over 56.5 (-106)
I know, this is a weird one but let’s break it down.
At home this season, the Jazz average 60.3 PPG, a little above this average.
In Game 1, they stunk. They didn’t even get close to this scoring just 43 points, but in the 2nd half, they found a rhythm, found what worked against the Memphis defense and put up 66 points.
Now, as we mentioned above, Donovan Mitchell is back and I think it will be with vengeance. In the 2 games he played in vs. the Grizzlies, they scored 66 in the first half and 70 points in the first half. They couldn’t be stopped and I think that is the case today.
We have seen the top teams in the NBA like the Bucks and Nets struggle to score in Game 1 and then go wild in Game 2 and I think that’s what happens today. The Jazz will push the ball, continue to shoot 3’s and they will fall today. They shot 12/47 from 3, so those are bound to start falling.
I am taking the Jazz first half Team Total over 56.5 points and not thinking twice. All we need is 57.
Teaser: 76ers-3.5 and Jazz-4 (+100)
We are back to the teaser well because I think this is really good value.
The Jazz are obviously in a must win game and I think they do just that in a big way, but I don’t trust them to cover the 9 points they are getting right now. As for the Sixers, I just think they are the better team and they are at home.
They have way too many mismatches on offense to not beat this Wizards team. Sure the Wizards have heart with Westbrook and Beal gets buckets, but Embiid, Harris and Simmons and the rest of the crew are too much especially for a team that was 28-4 SU as a home favorite. 4 isn’t asking for much, so I will lay the points and hope these two teams show up to play.
Safe, Same Game Parlay: +103
Trae Young 20+ points, 8+ assists
Julius Randle 20+ points, 6+ rebounds
All of these legs hit in Game 1 except for Randle. I expect Trae to have another good game, don’t know if he will hit his over but he should get us 20 points as he has done just that in every game against the Knicks this season, plus the Mayor of NYC just called him out for hunting fouls so he’s just going to do that even more.
Randle has hit each of these 2 legs in all games against the Hawks except for Game 1 but he will be better today, and that’s mostly because he couldn’t be worse. He shot 6/23 from the field and I think his shot attempts will approach that number again, and he should knock them down against a Hawks team he has notoriously torched. You get great value at +103 for legs that should hit, and thus we are taking it for 1 unit.
MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
Indians ML F5 (-130) vs. Tigers
White Sox RL -1.5 +100 vs. Cardinals
Astros ML +120 vs. Dodgers
Athletics’ ML (-130) vs. Mariners
Bauer Under 6.5 K’s (+115)
Royals/Rays NRFI (-150)
Rays NRFI, A’s ML, Indians F5 ML