NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Thursday, 5/27/2021
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Let’s get into my NBA & MLB Best Bets of the Day!
NBA Best Bets Record: 447-401-1 (+32.4 units)
MLB Best Bets Record: 178-132-4 (+32.8 units)
Here is today’s slate!
Khris Middleton Over 19.5 Points (-120)
Okay, this disrespect wont be tolerate. Just cause he spells his name with a K doesn’t mean he should be disrespected like this. Khris has notoriously exploited the Heat, and even in last game where he played just 24 minutes and attempted a total of 5 shots, he still ended up with 17 points.
Dating back to the Bubble, these teams have played 11 times, Khris has cashed this over in 8 of them. If we make it just the playoffs, he would’ve cashed it in 5 of 7 (one of those losses being the 17 point performance in Game 2). Judging by the spread, this game should be close and that means more minutes for Middleton.
He’s averaging 24.6 PPG in his 7 career playoff games vs. the Heat, well above this average. The Heat obviously key in on Giannis and I doubt they let the Bryn Forbes’ of the world get as many open shots as they did in Game 2.
They will hunker down on defense but I still think Khris will be the main recipient of some more shots and opportunities and I bet he makes the most of them.
Lock it in. Khris Middleton over 19.5 points.
Anthony Davis Over 11.5 Rebs+Asts (-118)
Disclaimer: If you don’t have RA’s, I would do his rebounds at 8.5
This line is flat out too low in my opinion. It should at the very least be 12.5, if not 13.5, yet we get it at 11.5 at decent value so let’s explain why.
Last game, we saw AD fill up the stat sheet, ending with 10 rebound and 7 assists for a sold 17 RA’s combined. Now if we look at Game 1 when he was disinterested in playing, he still managed 9 RA’s, so as a whole he’s averaging 13 RA’s a game.
What about previous matchups?
5/9: 12 rebs, 5 asts: 17 RA’s
Last year: 17, 13, 16, and that’ll do it for games against the Suns as a Laker, and he still hit this line consistently as a New Orleans Pelican.
I don’t think the Suns will just let AD live at the free throw line tonight. He’s a matchup nightmare so maybe we get some more double teams and assists from AD, but I doubt he beats his 7 assists from Game 2.
Either way, I like the consistency and how he’s performed thus far and I am locking it in as my second official play.
Devin Booker Over 28.5 Points
With CP3 hampered by injury, the Suns will have to rely on Devin Booker even more than they already have to. He’s scored 31+ points in each game this series, and tonight, he will have to do the same to keep the Suns in this ball game.
We have seen young stars like Booker, like Trae Young, like Luka, dominate in their first career playoff series and tonight should be another example of that. Booker should shoot over 21 times which he didn’t necessarily hit in Game 2, but he did attempt 17 free throws. Let’s just assume he gets up 21+ shots, he did that in 24 games this season and hit the over in 17 of em, over 70%.
I look Book’s chances to be in free throw fiend mode and to just go out there and get buckets. The Lakers don’t really have someone to matchup with him and I think they are content winning this game and letting Booker be the only scorer if that’s what they want to do.
CJ McCollum Over 22.5 Points (-116)
I know, Damian Lillard’s points prop is 33.5 so I am staying away from that but let’s talk about McCollum who has yet to have a breakout game in these two games. McCollum scored 21 points in Game 1 on 8/20 shooting, only 40%, well below his season average of 45%.
Game 2, he struggled with foul trouble, still scored 21 points but on 9/12 shooting. I think he found his way to attack and score against the Nuggets defense. I do expect the Nuggets to put Aaron Gordon on Damian Lillard again this game as that is what they did in the 2nd Half and AG did a great job.
Blazers should look to get CJ involved as they aren’t going to go very far in the postseason if he is not cooking as well.
The last 23 playoff games, he has averaged 24 PPG and law of averages suggest a big game today to make up for those 2 21 point outings. Locking in CJ McCollum to get it done today.
Bucks/Heat Under 226
If you look at Game 2 when the Bucks shot ridiculously well from the field making 22 3 pointers, well they barely hit this over. Just 230 points scored that game. Obviously Game 1 was a clank show, and today, I think we get another one of those.
The Bucks average less points on the road than they do at home. But this is more important that the Heat have to lock in and I think Eric Spoelstra and their coaching staff have relayed that message. They have no chance if this game is a shootout. Just ask the Grizzlies yesterday, Ja Morant had a terrific game but they wont beat the Jazz if it’s a shootout. Same thing here with the Heat. They need to keep this a low scoring, grind it out game, and I think that is what we will get down in South Beach.
Just a hunch but I like the under in this game based on those couple things, and it’s playoff basketball in a must win game, I am taking the under.
Lakers+Blazers ML: +109
I like both of these teams to win today. The Lakers for obvious reason. Blazers should bounce back at home after a loss, and I expect the Nuggets and Blazers to alternate wins back and forth throughout this series so today is the Blazers turn.
The Lakers are 7 point favorites for a reason, Vegas obviously knows that CP3 is injured and while I don’t trust them to cover 7, I do think they ultimately win tonight.
Blazers can be a tough team to trust, but they won’t let Jokic go that crazy again. Terry Stotts has to make an adjustment….right? Letting Nikola feast will not go well long term.
Either way, I like this ML parlay of two teams that should win tonight and are getting great respect from Vegas. I will not touch that Bucks/Heat outcome because it is fishy.
MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:
Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot
Cubs ML (-140) vs. Pirates
CHW TT O4.5 (-145) vs. Orioles
Rays-0.5 F5 (-110) vs. Royals
Giants/Dodgers Under 8 Runs
Shane Bieber O8.5 K’s (-150)
Indians/Tigers NRFI (-150)
Indians NRFI, Cubs ML, Dodgers U8 Runs
Those are my NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for Thursday, May 27th. Here’s to hoping we bank together.
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And, check out our Sports Betting Arbitrage article and video. You don’t want to miss it.