NBA & MLB Best Bets: Friday, May 28th, 2021

NBA & MLB

NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets & Spreads for Friday, 5/28/2021

 This is my daily article! We breakdown our NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for each and every night. I’ll keep track of my record as the season progresses. Please check us out on Twitter @CallingOurShot for recaps and live updates.

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Let’s get into my NBA & MLB Best Bets of the Day!

 

NBA Best Bets Record: 449-405-1 (+30.2 units)

MLB Best Bets Record: 183-133-4 (+36.0 units)

Here is today’s slate!

 

RJ Barrett Over 26.5 PRAs (-104)

So, I know ‘but Austin he didn’t play many minutes last game, but Austin he hasn’t hit this in either game this series?’ okay I get those two points, but I am calling my shot. That’s basically the name of our channel and I am looking for a huge Barrett game. When you look at the numbers, if he played his usual minutes, he would’ve cashed this prop in both game 1 and game 2. He ended Game 1 with 26 PRAs in 32 minutes and Game 2 with 23 PRAs in just 26 minutes.

Well, both of those games saw unreal performances from players like Reggie Bullock and Alec Burks which spoiler, won’t happen all too often. Today, Barrett will see an uptick in his minutes and he should see close to 40 again. Prior to game 1 and 2, RJ had cashed this over in all 3 games against the Hawks this season with games of 27, 29 and 42 PRAs.

In his last 2 games in ATL, he has scored 26 points alone in each of them. I say he is aggressive tonight on the road in a big game to try to steal a game and take back home court advantage.

I am banking on the talent of RJ and opportunity to kick in. If he gets his normal regular season minutes, he will hit this easily. Just need Reggie or Burks or Quickley to go scorched earth. On a side note, you could argue to take D Rose’s props as he has been a straight cash cow the past couple weeks, but I think he’s exhausted after their last game which should play into the favor of the younger RJ Barrett. Rose will likely be starting and I just think the minutes will wear him out and lead to bigger  minutes for RJ.

If I am wrong, so be it. I have been wrong before. Let’s go get it done, Maple Mamba.

 

Blake Griffin Over 2.5 Assists (+110)

Before you skip to the next pick, let me give you a little bit of analysis on this one. I have trashed Blake Griffin in the past but he has revitalized his career. He is now dunking the basketball, something he didn’t do for years, and he appears to be a good fit for this Nets team.

Blake Griffin has played 26 games with the Nets, and he has seen 20+ minutes in 19 of those games (including 20+ in both games this series). He has cashed this line in 13 of those 19 games (so a solid 68%).

More importantly, he has cashed this line in 6 of his last 8 games. Had 4 assists in Game 1 and Game 2, AND he had 3 assists against the Celtics back when they played the Nets in late April.

I anticipate this game being closer than the previous 2, and an added bonus Jeff Green is out for at least 10 days and will miss this game. And while that might not mean more minutes for Blake Griffin, it does leave open the possibility for those 20ish minutes Green plays per game to go to someone else.

Listen, I expect a big 1 assist from Blake Griffin tonight, but I like the value at +110 and I am willing to take my chances on this player prop.

Fade if you want or completely avoid it, just wanted to get it out there.

 

Kawhi Leonard Over 30.5 Points

We had this points prop a couple nights ago when they disrespected him with a 25.5 point line, and now, rightfully so, it is up much higher but I still think he cashes this. He obviously is coming off a 41 point game in loss but you just look at how he has fared against them in the playoffs and it’s enough said.

Obviously 41 points in Game 2, only 26 in Game 1. Last year in the Bubble Playoffs: 33, 32, 32, 36, 35, 29. He’s cashed in 6 of their 8 total playoff games against each other.

He’s a living robot and the Mavs do not have anyone that can stop him. And this is an absolute must win. Ty Lue can play him 45 minutes if he needs to. Rondo will play more and that should help facilitate the offense and get Kawhi in spots he is comfortable scoring the basketball.

I am taking the over and not thinking twice. The numbers line up with it and I think he hits it in a game the Clippers can’t afford to lose.

Kawhi doesn’t want to sit around and watch Marcus Morris, Pat Bev and Reggie Jackson clank it up. Take control of the game and go shoot 25 times and we should easily cash. Let’s do it.

 

Luka Doncic Over 47.5 PRAs (-111)

I am riding the hot hand of Luka tonight at home in Dallas. You’d think the Clippers would make some adjustments to try and stop him, but I don’t think Ty Lue is that great of a coach.

He would’ve made those adjustments mid-game instead of letting Luka abuse them. The only adjustment to be made would be doubling and leaving the Mavs wide open on the perimeter where they have been knocking them down at a ridiculous rate this series.

But you look at Luka and his body of work against the Clippers, and we will just talk about the postseason where he has played them in 8 games:

PRA lines: 53, 52, 56, 34 (injury), 73, 33, 43, 58. So he has cashed in 5/8. Today, I am betting solely on the talent of Luka to get this done. He’s fully healthy and cooking. I do like his assists line but it was at 9.5 which felt a little high. I think Kawhi and Luka go back and forth all night. Kawhi might be on him defensively, but they run so many pick and rolls that he can only fight through them so much or leave him open for some 3’s.

I am taking the Wonder Boy himself and locking it in. Luka Over 47.5 PRAs.

           

Hawks-4 vs. Knicks

In both games the Hawks held double digit leads but ended up losing them. Like we talked about earlier, players that played a large role in those comebacks were Derrick Rose, or Alec Burks, or Reggie Bullock. Now, as we have seen time and time again, role players have a harder time showing up on the road, and I think that will be the case today.

The Knicks needed those big performances to stay close and win these games. Unfortunately, they aren’t at home and while I am not doubting the greatness of D Rose, I do think as you saw in my analysis for RJ Barrett, that he will have less of an impact today.

Let’s give you some analytics:

Hawks are 23-13 ATS at home, the best in the NBA and are 25-11 at home this season straight up. The Knicks on the other hand do have a good ATS on the road, but they are just 16-20 straight up. It can be tough to lose but still cover the 4 points, so I am fine laying the points with the Hawks against my Knicks.

Trae Young will be fired up after having a fan spit on him which is unacceptable, but that’s not why we are here. He will make sure his teammates get the ball in the place they need it. The Hawks bench should show up except for Gallinari with that hair cut…can’t fix that.

It pains me to do it, but I am riding with the Atlanta Hawks, technically my hometown team as I grew up outside Atlanta, to win and cover today.

 

MLB Run Lines, Over/Under’s, NRFIs:

Here is today’s slate. For full analysis, check out our full video on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/callingourshot

Braves ML (-142) vs. Mets

Blue Jays -1.5 (+105) vs. Indians

Dodgers F5 -0.5 (-118) vs. Giants

Tigers TT U2.5 (-118) vs. Yankees

Gerrit Cole Over 9.5 K’s (-115)

Rockies/Pirates NRFI (-120)

 

Parlay: 

DET TT U2.5 Runs, TOR -1.5, LAD F5 RL: +570

 

Those are my NBA & MLB Best Prop Bets and spreads for Friday, May 27th.  Here’s to hoping we bank together. 

Also, follow us on Twitter @CallingOurShot.

And, check out our Sports Betting Arbitrage article and video. You don’t want to miss it.

Sports Betting Arbitrage: What is it? & How Can OddsJam help?

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